The Illusion of Certainty: Why We Pretend to Know and How to Stop

We’ve all seen it — or done it ourselves. A quick cross-out. A confident checkmark.A nod that says: “Of course I’ve got this figured out.” But beneath the surface?

Confusion. Hesitation. A quiet voice whispers, “Is this the right move?”

That moment, captured brilliantly in a short comedic video, isn’t just funny — it’s painfully familiar. In high-stakes meetings, strategic planning, or even job interviews, many of us choose to perform confidently rather than express uncertainty.

And it’s not just an individual phenomenon. Entire organizations sometimes behave this way: constantly editing, polishing, “sounding right” while lacking true clarity.

1. When Confidence Becomes a Performance

Social psychologist Erving Goffman (1959) coined the concept of Impression Management — our tendency to present ourselves in ways we believe will be favorably received. In the workplace, this often translates into polished speech, confident body language, and apparent decisiveness — even when we’re uncertain or confused.

Research supports this: people tend to overstate certainty in public or formal contexts due to social desirability bias (Paulhus, 1984), and leaders may fall into what Harvard Business School refers to as “the leadership facade” - portraying strength to avoid appearing weak (Owens et al., 2013).

But this “fake it till you make it” culture can have a cost:

• It discourages learning and vulnerability

• It perpetuates surface-level solutions

• It creates a culture of appearance over substance

  
  

In HR and organizational strategy, I see this frequently:

• Executive teams aligning on words, not actions

• Employees checking boxes on values they don’t feel

• Candidates “performing” in interviews without direction

• Managers repeating goals they don’t understand

  
  

This isn’t leadership. It’s a theater.

2. The Psychology Behind the Performance

There are cognitive and emotional drivers that make pretending so tempting:

1. Cognitive dissonance (Festinger, 1957): We want our self-image as “capable professionals” to align with how others perceive us. If we’re unsure, we may fake clarity to reduce internal tension.

2. The Dunning-Kruger effect (Kruger & Dunning, 1999): Ironically, those with less competence often overestimate their abilities and express more certainty than those who are self-aware.

3. Fear of judgment: In uncertain workplaces, vulnerability is often perceived as a sign of weakness. So people's posture and clarity take a back seat.

   
   

4. Clarity Is the New Confidence

Confidence is magnetic - but clarity is sustainable. And unlike performative certainty, clarity is not about sounding right - it’s about aligning words, actions, and intentions.

Clarity means:

• Knowing your "why" before writing the "what"

• Communicating transparently, even when the answer is “we’re still figuring it out”

• Aligning internal language with external behavior

• Building strategies that guide action, not just fill slides

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In short, clarity is what turns vision into traction.

4. Implications for Leaders and Organizations

If you're leading a team, building a brand, or shaping culture, ask yourself:

• Are we optimizing for clarity or appearance?

• Are we encouraging open questions or rewarding fake certainty?

• Do our words match our actions, or are we just skilled at crafting statements?

  
  

Outstanding leadership isn’t about always knowing the correct answer. It’s about creating space for learning to emerge through questions, collaboration, and reflection.

5. From Performance to Purpose: What You Can Do

Whether you’re a job seeker, a team lead, or a senior executive, here’s how to shift away from the illusion of certainty:

1. Normalize uncertainty. Say “I don’t know” — and then commit to finding out. Cultures that embrace questions outperform those that punish doubt (Edmondson, 2018).

2. Focus on internal alignment first. Before writing a mission, EVP, or job post, ask: Do we live this, or say it?

3. Measure clarity, not polish, and review how things sound. Ask if they’re understood. Implemented. Believed.

4. Seek external reflection. Consultants, coaches, or peer advisory groups can reveal blind spots. Often, you can’t rewrite what you haven’t yet seen clearly.

   
   

Final Thought

The confident smile. The scribbled-over mess of words.

Funny? Absolutely.But also — a mirror.

We all cross things out and pretend to know. The trick is learning to pause before the checkmark — and ask the more profound questions that lead to real alignment.

If you're ready to lead with clarity — not just look confident — let’s talk. That’s what I do.

👉 www.everythinghr-or.com

References

• Edmondson, A. C. (2018). The Fearless Organization: Creating Psychological Safety in the Workplace for Learning, Innovation, and Growth. Wiley.

• Festinger, L. (1957). A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Stanford University Press.

• Goffman, E. (1959). The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life. Anchor Books.

• Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134.

• Owens, B. P., Johnson, M. D., & Mitchell, T. R. (2013). Expressed humility in organizations: Implications for performance, teams, and leadership. Organization Science, 24(5), 1517–1538.

• Paulhus, D. L. (1984). Two-component models of socially desirable responding. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46(3), 598–609.